Russia’s offline primary oil refining capacity seen falling 22% in Oct. vs Sept.

MOSCOW, Oct 13 (Reuters) – Russia’s offline primary oil refining capacity is expected to decline by 22% in October from September to 4 million metric tons, industry sources said and Reuters calculations showed on Friday.

The decline in offline refining capacity usually leads to a decrease in available crude oil volumes and, subsequently, lower exports.

This would likely help Russia stick to its pledge to cut oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day from the average May-June level until year-end.

Russian crude oil and product exports rose in September by as much as 460,000 barrels per day, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated on Thursday, despite Western sanctions and Moscow’s pledge to cut output in tandem with OPEC.

Russia’s offline refining capacity last month rose by 7.2% from an initial plan to 4.967 million tons, also up 30% from September 2022.

According to the current plans, offline capacity is set to more than halve in November to 1.722 million tons.

However, the drop may not prove to be so sharp with a number of maintenance outages extended and Moscow’s remaining restriction on the export of diesel by rail and total ban on gasoline exports.

One of the main contributors to idle refining capacity this month is Rosneft’s (ROSN.MM) Ryazan and Syzran oil refineries in the Volga region.

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